Analisis Saham PT Phapros Tbk (PEHA) Per Q3 2025 (Update Desember)

Tanggal Analisis: 29 Desember 2025
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 298 per lembar
Ticker: PEHA (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Phapros Tbk
Sektor: Farmasi - Produksi, Distribusi Obat-obatan, Herbal, Supplement
Nilai Pasar: Rp 250 Miliar
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 840 Juta lembar
Sejarah: Founded 1952 | IPO 2001 | Historical Blue-chip | Recently Restructuring

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - ACCUMULATE (PHARMACEUTICAL TURNAROUND, Q3 2025 INFLECTION POINT, HIGH-RISK/HIGH-REWARD)h2

Rating: 🟡 ACCUMULATE (Perusahaan farmasi sedang turnaround recovery dari 2024 loss crisis, Q3 2025 menunjukkan inflection point positif dengan profit swing + OCF positive, tapi TTM masih negatif, valuation murah, dividen history kuat - cocok untuk patient recovery investor)

PEHA adalah perusahaan farmasi bersejarah yang mengalami kesulitan 2023-2024 (loss Rp (285)M 2024) tetapi mulai recovery 2025. TTM menunjukkan loss Rp (210)M akibat bleed 2024, tapi 9M 2025 sudah swing positive profit Rp ~7-10M dengan trajectory jelas. Q3 2025 solidnya: revenue Rp 856M (+10,27% YoY), operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37%, OCF positif Rp 115M (turnaround signal kuat). Cost restructuring berhasil. Management target H1 2025 positive (achieved). Saham turun -82% dari peak justified karena 2024 crisis, tapi recovery underway. P/E negative (loss company) tapi IMPROVING. Dividen history Rp 13-85 (dari era profitable) suggestive dari potensi. Rating ACCUMULATE untuk risk-taker believing turnaround akan complete 2026.

Status Kini (Data Kuartal 3 2025 & 9M 2025 Progress):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM	Rp 856 Miliar	Growing +10,27% YoY
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 353 Miliar	Gross margin 41,2%
EBITDA TTM	Rp 157 Miliar	EBITDA margin 18,3%
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp (210) Miliar	TTM LOSS (2024 overhang)
Q3 2025 Profit	Rp 5 Miliar	Positive ✓ (inflection)
9M 2025 Profit (est)	Rp ~7-10 Miliar	Swing positive ✓
OCF TTM	Rp 115 Miliar	POSITIVE STRONG ✓
FCF TTM	Rp 106 Miliar	STRONG ✓
D/E Ratio	1,67x	Manageable
Altman Score	0,43	🟡 Distress zone (TTM), but improving
Interest Coverage	-3,88x	Negative (TTM), but Q3 positive
Operating Margin Q3	7,49%	Good
Net Margin Q3	2,37%	Positive inflection

Profil Turnaround & Recovery:

1. 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Rear-view mirror effect (2024 crisis cumulative in TTM)
2. ✓ But Q1-Q3 2025 profitable - 9M swing positive turnaround underway
3. ✓ OCF positive Rp 115M - Cash generation strong (turnaround signal)
4. ✓ Revenue growth +10,27% - Demand recovery visible
5. ✓ Cost restructuring working - Operating margin 7,49%, net margin 2,37% (Q3 improvement)
6. 🟡 Price down -82% 5-tahun justified - But valuation now beaten down
7. ✓ Dividen history Rp 13-85 - Suggests profitable era potential returning
8. ✓ Pharmaceutical fundamentals solid - Essential products, recurring demand

Kesimpulan Awal: PEHA adalah HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND PLAY dengan clear inflection point Q3 2025. TTM loss hanya karena 2024 crisis yang sudah dilewati; operasional 2025 sudah profitable. OCF positif dan revenue growth confirm turnaround genuine. Cocok HANYA untuk investor yang: (1) percaya turnaround akan complete 2026, (2) dapat hold 2-3 tahun, (3) accept -50% downside jika turnaround fails, (4) tahu farmasi sector. Rating ACCUMULATE (bukan BUY aggressive).

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATA & PENILAIAN AWALh2

PERHATIAN KONVERSI FORMAT ANGKA & TIMING:

Format Konversi (CRITICAL):

• “856 B” Revenue TTM = Rp 856 MILIAR (B = Billion = Miliar, BUKAN Triliun)
• “353 B” Gross Profit TTM = Rp 353 MILIAR
• “157 B” EBITDA TTM = Rp 157 MILIAR
• “(210) B” Net Loss TTM = Rp (210) MILIAR loss
• “115 B” OCF TTM = Rp 115 MILIAR
• “92 B” Kas Q = Rp 92 MILIAR

✓ Konversi VERIFIED BENAR - semua dalam MILIAR format

PENTING - TTM vs Quarterly Sequential Analysis:

Kenapa TTM loss tapi Q3 positif? Karena TTM (last 12 months) includes:

• Q4 2024 (very weak, loss Rp ~100M+)
• Q1-Q3 2024 (weak, loss Rp ~180M total)
• Total 2024 loss ~Rp (285)M = Q4 2024 bleed

Sedangkan 2025 (9M):

• Q1 2025: (6) Miliar loss (early recovery)
• Q2 2025: 8 Miliar profit (turning point!)
• Q3 2025: 5 Miliar profit (confirmed!)
• Total 9M 2025 ~Rp 7M profit (SWING!)

Laporan Laba Rugi (TTM vs Sequential):

Periode	Revenue	Operating Margin	Net Profit	Margin	Trend
Q3 2025	267,5M	7,49%	5M	2,37%	↑ Positive
Q3 2024	243,3M	Negative	(18)M	Negative	↓ Loss
9M 2025 est	800M	~6%	~7-10M	~1%	↑ Turnaround
9M 2024	713M	Negative	(30)M	Negative	↓ Loss
FY 2024	780M	Negative	(285)M	Negative	↓ Crisis
TTM	856M	18% EBITDA	(210)M	Negative	↑ Improving

KEY INSIGHT: TTM loss is 2024 cumulative (Rp (285)M) still heavy-weighted. But 9M 2025 already swing positive! This suggests 4Q 2025 could be VERY positive if momentum continues.

Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp (249,48)
EPS (Annual)	Rp 12,28
Revenue Per Share (TTM)	Rp 1.019,16
Dividen (Historical)	Rp 13,37

🟡 EPS TTM negative - But annualized EPS positive Rp 12,28 (showing recovery).

🟡 Dividen historical Rp 13,37 - From profitable 2022, suggests distribution capacity if turnaround succeeds.

Neraca (Q3 2025):

Item	Rp Miliar
Kas	92
Total Aset	1.457
Total Liabilitas	1.054
Total Ekuitas	390
Utang Jangka Panjang	388
Utang Jangka Pendek	261
Total Utang	649
Net Debt	(557)

🟡 Net Debt Rp (557)M - Some leverage, but D/E 1,67x manageable.

🟡 Working capital tight - Liabilities > Equity ratio elevated (turnaround stress).

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
Arus dari Operasi	115 ✓
Arus dari Investasi	(9)
Arus Kas Bebas	106 ✓
Arus dari Pendanaan	(64)

✓ OCF Rp 115M positive - EXCELLENT turnaround signal (company generating cash despite loss on paper).

✓ FCF Rp 106M positive - Can self-fund operations, no external financing needed.

Valuasi (pada harga Rp 298):

Metrik	Nilai	Penilaian
P/E (TTM)	Negative	N/A (loss company)
P/E (Annual)	24,27x	🟡 Fair-to-High (if turnaround succeeds)
P/B	0,64x	🟢 Discount to book (value)
P/S	0,29x	🟢 VERY CHEAP
EV/EBITDA	-4,09x	N/A (negative)
Price-to-FCF	2,36x	🟢 EXCELLENT

🟢 VALUATION ATTRACTIVE IF TURNAROUND SUCCEEDS - P/S 0,29x is extremely cheap, P/B 0,64x discount, P/FCF 2,36x excellent.

🔴 BUT RISK: If turnaround fails, downside -50%+ (to Rp 150 range).

Profitabilitas (Quarterly Trend):

Margin	Q3 2025	9M 2025	FY 2024	Trend
Gross Margin	52,34%	~41%	~40%	Stable
Operating Margin	7,49%	~6%	Negative	↑ RECOVERING
Net Profit Margin	2,37%	~1%	Negative	↑ RECOVERING

✓ Margins improving dramatically - Q3 2025 net margin 2,37% vs FY2024 negative = clear recovery.

Pertumbuhan (YoY):

Metrik	Q3 YoY	Revenue
Revenue	+10,27% ✓	Growing
Gross Profit	+27,32% ✓	Strong
Net Income	+129,23% ✓	Swing from loss

✓ ALL positive YoY - Net income swing +129% (from -18M to +5M) shows inflection.

Kesehatan Finansial:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
Current Ratio	1,32x	🟡 Tight
Quick Ratio	1,02x	🟡 Barely adequate
D/E	1,67x	🟡 Manageable
Interest Coverage	-3,88x	🔴 TTM negative
Altman Score	0,43	🔴 DISTRESS (TTM), improving
FCF	106 Miliar	✓ Positive

🟡 Altman 0,43 indicates distress - BUT this is TTM (2024 crisis). Q3 2025 momentum suggests Altman improving.

Returns (TTM):

Metrik	Nilai
ROA	-14,38%
ROE	-53,77%
ROIC	-23,01%

🔴 ALL NEGATIVE TTM - But backward-looking (2024 loss). 2025 ROIC likely positive if turnaround continues.

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: 🟡 INFLECTION POINT - RECOVERING FROM LOSS

🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M - Negative fundamental.

✓ BUT Q3 2025 margin 2,37% - Positive inflection confirmed.

✓ 9M 2025 profit Rp ~7-10M - Turnaround underway.

✓ Margin trajectory improving - Operating margin 7,49% Q3 strong untuk farmasi.

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG POSITIVE - RECOVERY SIGNAL

✓ OCF Rp 115M POSITIVE - Excellent for loss company (indicates genuine recovery, not accounting).

✓ FCF Rp 106M POSITIVE - Self-funding capability.

✓ Cash generation proof - Turnaround is real (not just paper).

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 MANAGEABLE LEVERAGE, MONITORING NEEDED

🟡 D/E 1,67x manageable - High but typical turnaround.

🔴 Interest coverage negative TTM - But likely positive Q3 2025.

🟡 Altman 0,43 distress TTM - Will improve as 2024 loss weight out.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🔴 NEGATIVE TTM, BUT IMPROVING Q3

🔴 All returns negative TTM - ROE -53%, ROA -14%, ROIC -23%.

✓ But trend upward - If turnaround succeeds, returns will swing positive dramatically.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: - NONE NOW, BUT HISTORY STRONG (Rp 13-85)

❌ No dividen 2023-2025 - Suspended during crisis.

✓ But historical Rp 13,37 (2022), Rp 23,09 (2020) - Suggests capacity to resume if turnaround succeeds.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🟡 Inflection recovering	2.5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Strong positive	4/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 Manageable	2.5/5
4. Return Investasi	🔴 Negative TTM	1/5
5. Dividen	- None, but capacity if successful	1/5
RATA-RATA	🟡 TURNAROUND INFLECTION	2.2/5 (TTM)

PENTING: Rata-rata 2.2/5 TTM tidak fair. Sequential Q3 2025 menunjukkan 3.5-4.0/5 trajectory. This is ASYMMETRIC risk/reward: downside defined (cash positive), upside significant (if turnaround complete).

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation (Base on Turnaround Scenario):

Model	Fair Value	Current	Margin
P/B 1,0x (if profitable)	Rp 390	Rp 298	+31%
P/E 12x (normalized)	Rp 147	Rp 298	-50%
P/S 0,5x (industry avg)	Rp 428	Rp 298	+44%
DCF recovery scenario	Rp 350-450	Rp 298	+17-51%
Consensus (if turnaround)	Rp 350-450	Rp 298	+17-51%

🟡 Fair value highly CONDITIONAL on turnaround success.

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Prob	Return	Target	Narrative
Bull	30%	+100%	Rp 596	Turnaround complete, profit Rp 30-40M, dividen resume
Base	40%	+20%	Rp 358	Turnaround succeeds, profit Rp 15M, normalized valuation
Bear	20%	-40%	Rp 179	Recovery stalls, margin pressure, dividen stays suspended
Crash	10%	-80%	Rp 60	Turnaround fails, return to loss, liquidity crisis
Expected		+8%	Rp 322	Probability-weighted (modest positive, high-risk)

🟡 Expected return +8% is LOW, but asymmetric risk: huge upside if turnaround succeeds, defined downside if fails.

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 ACCUMULATE (Not BUY - requires specific thesis)h3

🟡 ACCUMULATE di Rp 298 (Hanya untuk risk-taker turnaround believers)

Alasan:

• ✓ Turnaround inflection point clear (Q3 2025 profit positive)
• ✓ OCF Rp 115M positive (genuine recovery, not accounting)
• ✓ Revenue growing +10,27% (demand exists)
• ✓ Cost restructuring working (margin improving)
• ✓ Valuation cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
• ✓ Dividen history strong (Rp 13-85 suggests resumption potential)
• ✓ Saham down -82% already reflected worst case

TAPI WARNING:

• ❌ TTM still loss (rear-view mirror, but real)
• ❌ Altman 0,43 distress zone
• ❌ Interest coverage negative TTM
• ❌ Working capital tight
• ❌ Downside -50%+ if turnaround stalls

Entry Strategy (For High-Risk Tolerance Only):

Level	Action	Rationale
Rp 298-320	SMALL BUY (10-15% portfolio)	Current, test turnaround narrative
Rp 250-280	Accumulate (if dips)	Better risk/reward entry
>Rp 400	REDUCE (lock profit)	Full recovery scenario achieved

Hold Period: 2-3 years minimum (turnaround cycle)

Key Catalysts to Monitor:

Date	Event	Impact
Q4 2025	Full-year 2025 results (CRITICAL)	Confirm turnaround trajectory
H1 2026	Profit Rp 15M+ target	Dividen resumption signal
2026+	Margin normalization (5%+)	Valuation re-rating

Red Flags / Stop-Loss:

• 🔴 Q4 2025 profit < Rp 3M - Momentum stalling
• 🔴 Revenue decline - Demand weakness
• 🔴 Margin compression - Cost creep returning
• 🔴 Altman score declining - Solvency worsening
• 🔴 Interest payments missed - Financial distress
• Stop-Loss: Rp 150 (fundamental deterioration)

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KESIMPULANh2

PEHA adalah 🟡 ACCUMULATE (HIGH-RISK TURNAROUND) - NOT FOR GENERAL INVESTORS.

Fundamental kritis:

• 🔴 TTM loss Rp (210)M (real, but from 2024 crisis)
• 🔴 Altman 0,43 distress (but improving)
• ✓ But OCF Rp 115M positive (turnaround genuine)
• ✓ Q3 2025 profit swing positive (inflection confirmed)

Valuation:

• ✓ Cheap IF turnaround succeeds (P/S 0,29x, P/FCF 2,36x)
• ❌ Potentially expensive IF turnaround fails (downside -50%)

Cocok HANYA untuk:

• Investor yang percaya pada pharmaceutical sector Indonesia recovery
• Mereka yang believe management execution turnaround
• Risk-takers yang dapat afford 50%+ loss jika turnaround fails
• 2-3 year+ hold minimum horizon

NOT for:

• Conservative investors
• Short-term traders
• Portfolio diversification (single risk=concentrated)

Best approach: Small speculative position (5-10% portfolio) if convinced turnaround narrative. Monitor Q4 2025 results closely - this is THE test of recovery thesis.

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Analisis dibuat 29 Desember 2025 berdasarkan Q3 2025 data, H1 2025 progress report, cost restructuring evidence, dan pharmaceutical industry tailwinds.