Analisis Saham PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP) Per Q3 Desember 2025

Tanggal Analisis: 4 Januari 2026
Harga Saat Ini: Rp 1.950 per lembar
Ticker: CMNP (Bursa Efek Indonesia)
Nama Perusahaan: PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk
Sektor: Infrastruktur - Pengusahaan Jalan Tol (Toll Road Concessions, Infrastructure Utility)
Nilai Pasar: Rp 13.058 Triliun
Jumlah Saham Beredar: 6,70 Miliar lembar
Didirikan: 1978 | IPO 1995 | 48 tahun track record (Perusahaan jalan tol terbesar Indonesia)

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🟡 RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF & REKOMENDASI - HOLD (INFRASTRUCTURE UTILITY DIVIDEND, CAPEX GROWTH, STABLE CASHFLOW, RATING MODERATE)h2

Rating: 🟡 HOLD (Perusahaan jalan tol premium dengan cashflow stabil, dividend konsisten, fundamental solid (D/E 0,46x, FCF Rp 2.059T) tapi menghadapi headwind: Q3 profit down 19,78% YoY dari kenaikan beban keuangan, capex ramp 2026 Rp 6,1T besar memerlukan rights issue (dilution risk), valuation moderate P/E 14,97x tidak cheap, yield dividend rendah 0.6% - suitable untuk patient infrastructure investor, tidak untuk growth atau yield seekers)

CMNP adalah operator jalan tol premium dengan 6 concession portfolio (JIUT 100%, Warju 96%, Desari 79%, Soroja 82%, Cisumdawu 65%, BORR 45%), menghasilkan revenue stabil Rp 4,79 Triliun TTM dengan margin 18,2% profit (Rp 872 Miliar). Fundamental solid: FCF Rp 2.059 Triliun excellent, D/E 0,46x manageable, interest coverage 2,37x adequate, Altman 3,08 good. Dividen konsisten (historical Rp 11,78 = 0.6% yield modest). TAPI headwind visible: Q3 2025 profit Rp 722.9M down 19,78% YoY (Rp 900M 9M24) dari kenaikan beban keuangan + operasional; 2025 target net income Rp 794M (down from 2024 Rp 983M). Capex ramp besar 2026: Rp 6,1 Triliun (vs Rp 3.22T 2025) untuk HBR 2 proyek besar, memerlukan Rp 3.75T bank loan + optional rights issue Rp 2.2T (dilution risk). Valuation moderate: P/E 14,97x (tidak cheap), P/B 0,94x (discount but not compelling). Momentum YTD +10,48% recent strength. Rating HOLD karena fundamental solid tapi headwind jelas (profit pressured, capex large, dilution risk). Better untuk patient infrastructure investor dengan 3-5 year horizon expecting steady dividen + gradual capital appreciation.

Status Kini (Data Q3 2025, 9M 2025, TTM):

Item	Nilai	Keterangan
Pendapatan TTM	Rp 4.789 Triliun	Stabil, target Rp 4.86T (2025), Rp 4.18T (2026)
Laba Kotor TTM	Rp 1.832 Triliun	38,3% gross margin excellent
EBITDA TTM	Rp 1.932 Triliun	40,3% EBITDA margin (utility-class)
Laba Bersih TTM	Rp 872 Miliar	18,2% margin ✓
Q3 2025 Profit	Rp 722.9M	Down -19,78% YoY ❌
2025 Target	Rp 794M	Down from 2024 Rp 983M
OCF TTM	Rp 538 Triliun	STRONG ✓
FCF TTM	Rp 2.059 Triliun	EXCELLENT ✓
D/E Ratio	0,46x	MODERATE ✓
Altman Score	3,08	SOLID ✓
Dividen (Historical)	Rp 11,78	0.6% yield modest
P/E (TTM)	14,97x	Moderate, not cheap
Momentum YTD	+10,48%	Recent strength

Profil Infrastructure Capex + Dividend:

1. ✓ Cashflow excellent - OCF Rp 538T, FCF Rp 2.059T strong
2. 🟡 Profit declining - Q3 down 19.78%, 2025 net income guidance down vs 2024
3. ❌ Capex ramping - Rp 6.1T 2026 (double 2025), requires Rp 3.75T new debt + rights issue
4. ✓ Portfolio quality - 6 toll concessions, stable recurring revenue
5. 🟡 Dividend modest - 0.6% yield (CMNP payout focus on capex, not yield)
6. ✓ Leverage manageable - D/E 0,46x, interest cover 2,37x, liabilitas down YTD
7. 🟡 Valuation moderate - P/E 14,97x not cheap, P/B 0,94x discount but not compelling
8. 🟡 Growth uncertain - Revenue target 2026 LOWER (Rp 4.18T vs Rp 4.79T current) = margin expansion focus

Kesimpulan Awal: CMNP adalah INFRASTRUCTURE UTILITY dengan CAPEX GROWTH + CASHFLOW - Fundamental solid tapi menghadapi temporary headwind (Q3 profit down, 2025 earnings guidance lower). Bukan stock untuk yield atau growth investor. Suitable untuk patient capital dengan 3-5 year infrastructure cycle horizon, expecting steady FCF-backed dividen + gradual capital appreciation post-capex completion (HBR 2 expected 2027-2028). Rating HOLD - not BUY yet (wait for better entry or capex financing clarity).

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TAHAP 1: VERIFIKASI DATAh2

CRITICAL OBSERVATION: FCF Rp 2,059T is unusually high - indicates strong toll concession cash generation. Capex guidance Rp 6.1T 2026 means FCF will be absorbed by infrastructure projects, reducing equity distributable.

Laporan Keuangan (2023-2025 Projection):

Period	Revenue	Net Profit	Margin	Notes
Q3 2025	194 M	723 M	373% (??unusual)	Q3 profit included other income?
9M 2025	964 M	2,272 M	236% (??unusual)	9M results show exceptional margins
FY 2024	4,790 M	983 M	20,5%	Full year normal
2025 Target	4,860 M	794 M	16,3%	Lower net income (finance costs)
2026 Target	4,180 M	(est 600-700M)	14-17%	Lower revenue, focus on efficiency
TTM	4,789 M	872 M	18,2%	Current run-rate

⚠️ Note: Q3 2025 profit high (Rp 723M) but full-year guidance only Rp 794M suggests Q4 weakness or one-time gains in 9M results. Need to monitor full-year actual results carefully.

Per Saham:

Metrik	Nilai
EPS (TTM)	Rp 130,27
EPS (Annualized)	Rp 134,34
Revenue Per Share	Rp 715,12
Book Value Per Share	Rp 2.065,26
P/E at Rp 1,950	14,97x
P/B at Rp 1,950	0,94x
FCF Per Share	Rp 307,43

🟡 Valuation moderate - P/E 14,97x fair untuk utility, P/B 0,94x at discount.

Neraca (Q3 2025):

Item	Rp Miliar
Kas	391
Total Aset	24.495
Total Liabilitas	8.894
Total Ekuitas	13.830
Utang Jangka Panjang	- (included in total)
Total Utang	6.297
D/E	0,46x ✓
Net Debt	5.906

✓ Balance sheet solid - Moderate leverage, positive equity base Rp 13.8T.

Arus Kas (TTM):

Komponen	Rp Miliar
OCF	538 Miliar
Investing	(1.903)
FCF	2.059 (after capex)
Financing	(1.670)

✓ Cashflow excellent - Strong OCF supports capex + debt repayment.

Profitabilitas (Trend):

Margin	Q3 2025	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Trend
Gross	40,82%	-	-	Stable
Operating	36,65%	-	-	Strong
Net	16,03%	-	-	Healthy

✓ Q3 margins excellent - Toll operator leverage at peak utilization periods.

Pertumbuhan:

Metrik	Q3 YoY	9M YoY
Revenue	+16,78% ✓	+14,76% ✓
Net Income	-40,20% ❌	(est -5%)

❌ Earnings declining YoY - Major concern due to finance cost burden.

Returns & Solvency:

Metrik	Nilai	Status
ROA	3,56%	Moderate
ROE	6,31%	Moderate
ROIC	7,54%	Solid
D/E	0,46x	✓ Moderate
Interest Coverage	2,37x	⚠️ Tight
Altman	3,08	Good
Piotroski	5.0	Moderate

🟡 Returns moderate, coverage tight - Finance cost pressure evident from declining profit despite revenue growth.

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TAHAP 2: ANALISIS FUNDAMENTAL - 5 PILARh2

PILAR 1: PROFITABILITAS & MARGINh3

Status: ✓ EXCELLENT MARGIN BUT DECLINING PROFITABILITY

✓ Margin TTM 18,2% excellent - Toll operator high-margin business.

✓ Gross margin 38,3%, EBITDA 40,3% - Utility-class metrics.

❌ But Q3 profit down 40,2% YoY - Finance costs rising faster than revenue.

❌ 2025 net income guidance Rp 794M down vs 2024 Rp 983M - Structural headwind from capex financing.

Assessment: Margin quality excellent but profitability declining = CONCERN.

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PILAR 2: ARUS KAS & PEMBIAYAANh3

Status: ✓ STRONG CASH, BUT CAPEX CONSUMING

✓ OCF Rp 538M strong - Toll operations generate reliable cash.

✓ FCF Rp 2.059T excellent - After capex, still highly positive.

✓ Capex 2025 Rp 3.22T funded - OCF + existing cash + borrowing.

🟡 But capex 2026 Rp 6.1T huge - Nearly 4x OCF, requires major financing.

Assessment: Cashflow strong but capex ramp will stress liquidity = MONITOR CAREFULLY.

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PILAR 3: UTANG & SOLVABILITASh3

Status: 🟡 MODERATE, INCREASING LEVERAGE

✓ D/E 0,46x manageable - Still below red line.

✓ Altman 3,08 solid - No distress signals.

🟡 But interest coverage 2,37x tight - Limited buffer to rate shock.

🟡 Total debt Rp 6.297T increasing - Rp 2T more debt 2026 budgeted.

❌ If rights issue Rp 2.2T executed, significant dilution - Ownership impact.

Assessment: Solvency adequate but leverage rising + potential dilution = CAUTION.

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PILAR 4: HASIL INVESTASI & RETURNh3

Status: 🟡 MODERATE, DECLINING

🟡 ROA 3,56%, ROE 6,31% - Moderate returns for infrastructure.

🟡 ROIC 7,54% - Above cost of capital but declining as debt increases.

❌ Returns declining from 2024 - Capex delevering returns temporarily.

Assessment: Returns adequate but trending down = CYCLICAL TROUGH.

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PILAR 5: DIVIDEN & RETURN PEMEGANG SAHAMh3

Status: 🟡 STABLE BUT LOW YIELD

✓ Dividen consistent Rp 11,78 - Management committed to payments.

❌ Yield 0,6% very low - Not attractive for yield investors.

🟡 But FCF Rp 2.059T supports dividends - Payout sustainable.

🟡 2026 dividen likely lower - Capex priority will absorb cash.

Assessment: Dividen stable but yield low = not for income seekers.

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RINGKASAN 5 PILARh2

Pilar	Status	Nilai
1. Profitabilitas	🟡 Excellent margin, declining profit	3.5/5
2. Arus Kas	✓ Strong OCF, capex escalating	4/5
3. Utang & Solvabilitas	🟡 Moderate, increasing leverage	3.5/5
4. Return Investasi	🟡 Moderate, declining trend	3/5
5. Dividen	🟡 Stable, low yield	2.5/5
RATA-RATA	🟡 MODERATE	3.3/5

Score 3.3/5 = Moderate quality. Not among best-in-class. Suitable for defensive infra exposure only.

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TAHAP 3: VALUASI & FAIR VALUEh2

Fair Value Estimation (Multi-Method):

Model	Fair Value	Current	Upside
P/E 12x (conservative)	Rp 1.563	Rp 1.950	-20%
P/E 15x (market)	Rp 1.954	Rp 1.950	+0.2%
P/B 1,1x (fair)	Rp 2.272	Rp 1.950	+16%
FCF Yield 8%	Rp 1.925	Rp 1.950	-1%
Dividend DCF	Rp 1.850-2.050	Rp 1.950	-5% to +5%

🟡 CONSENSUS FAIR VALUE: Rp 1.850-2.050 = Current Rp 1.950 is NEAR FAIR VALUE, limited margin of safety.

Valuation Assessment: Stock trading at fair value with modest upside (5% max) and downside risk (20% if earnings disappoint). Not compelling entry point.

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TAHAP 4: SKENARIO 2-TAHUNh2

Scenario	Probability	Return	Target	Narrative
Bull	30%	+30%	Rp 2.535	HBR 2 on-time, capex cycle ends 2027-28, FCF boost, dividend +50%
Base	50%	+5%	Rp 2.048	Capex as planned, earnings stabilize 2026, modest dividen growth
Bear	20%	-20%	Rp 1.560	Capex overruns, rights issue dilution, traffic weak, earnings compressed
Expected		+4%	Rp 2.028	Probability-weighted modest return, not compelling

🟡 Expected return +4% over 2Y = ~2% CAGR + dividen 0.6% = 2.6% total CAGR WEAK.

Not attractive for growth investor. Better as defensive allocation only.

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REKOMENDASI INVESTASIh2

RATING: 🟡 HOLD (Infrastructure Utility Dividend, Capex Cycle, Moderate Returns)h3

🟡 HOLD current position | WAIT for better entry < Rp 1.750 or >Rp 2.200 for exit

Alasan HOLD (Tidak BUY):

• ❌ Q3 profit -40.2% YoY dari kenaikan beban keuangan
• ❌ 2025 net income guidance lower vs 2024 (Rp 794M vs Rp 983M)
• ❌ Capex 2026 Rp 6.1T large, requires Rp 3.75T new debt + possible rights issue (dilution)
• ❌ Expected return only +4% over 2Y (very modest)
• ❌ Dividend yield only 0.6% (not attractive)
• ❌ Valuation at fair value, no margin of safety
• ❌ Interest coverage 2.37x tight (rate shock vulnerable)

Tapi reasons to HOLD (Tidak SELL):

• ✓ Cashflow excellent OCF Rp 538M, FCF Rp 2.059T
• ✓ Balance sheet solid D/E 0,46x, Altman 3,08
• ✓ Portfolio quality - 6 toll concessions, recurring revenue
• ✓ Toll revenue stable, tariff upside 2026
• ✓ Management experienced, capex tracking on-schedule
• ✓ 30-year toll concessions = long-term visibility

Strategy by Investor Type:

Investor	Action	Hold Period
Yield Seeker	AVOID	N/A
Growth Seeker	AVOID	N/A
Defensive/Infra	HOLD if owned	3-5 years
Value at < Rp 1.750	ACCUMULATE	Long-term
Value at >Rp 2.200	REDUCE	Take profit

Key Milestones to Monitor (2026):

Event	Timeline	Impact
Full-year 2025 results	Feb 2026	Test earnings guidance accuracy
Rights issue announcement	Q2 2026 (likely)	Dilution magnitude signal
HBR 2 progress update	Quarterly	Capex execution tracking
Q1 2026 results	May 2026	Earnings trend confirmation

Exit Triggers:

• 🔴 Rights issue > Rp 2.5T → significant dilution, REDUCE 50%
• 🔴 Capex overrun > 20% → execution risk, REDUCE 30%
• 🔴 Profit guidance cut → downgrade to SELL
• 🟢 HBR 2 completion 2027 → buyback potential, HOLD

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KESIMPULANh2

CMNP adalah 🟡 HOLD - INFRASTRUCTURE UTILITY dengan CAPEX CYCLE + STEADY CASHFLOW.

Strengths:

• ✓ Excellent EBITDA margin 40%, toll business recurring revenue
• ✓ Strong cashflow OCF Rp 538M, FCF Rp 2.059T
• ✓ Solid balance sheet D/E 0,46x, Altman 3,08
• ✓ 6-concession portfolio diverse, 30-year visibility
• ✓ Consistent dividend Rp 11,78

Weaknesses:

• ❌ Profit declining (Q3 -40% YoY, 2025 guidance lower)
• ❌ Capex ramping sharply 2026 (Rp 6.1T vs Rp 3.22T 2025)
• ❌ Interest coverage tight 2.37x (rate vulnerable)
• ❌ Valuation at fair value, no margin of safety
• ❌ Dividend yield ultra-low 0.6%
• ❌ Expected return only +4% over 2Y (weak)

Best For: Defensive infrastructure investor with 3-5 year time horizon, expecting steady FCF-backed dividen + capital appreciation post-capex completion (2027-2028).

NOT suitable for:

• Yield investors (0.6% yield too low)
• Growth seekers (revenue declining, profits pressured)
• Momentum traders (sideways range-bound)

2Y Expected Return: +4% capital + ~1.2% cumulative dividen = 5% total (2.5% CAGR) WEAK.

Recommendation: HOLD for patient infrastructure exposure. WAIT for either (a) lower entry < Rp 1.750 (20% discount for margin of safety), or (b) post-capex completion clarity (2027+) before accumulating. Not compelling at current Rp 1.950.

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Analisis dibuat 4 Januari 2026 berdasarkan Q3 2025 results, 9M 2025 performance, 2025-2026 guidance official, dan capex planning announcement December 2025.